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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Mar 14, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Multimodel Validity Assessment of Groundwater Flow Simulation Models Using Area Metric Approach.

Omkar Aphale, David J Tonjes¹

¹Department of Technology and Society, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3760.

|October 6, 2016

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

The Area Metric assesses groundwater model validity by comparing simulated outputs to observed data using empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs). This method quantifies replicative validity, enhancing confidence and reducing risk for model users.

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Area of Science:

Environmental modeling
Hydrogeology
Geoscience

Background:

Model validation is crucial for reliable environmental assessments.
Traditional binary validation (valid/invalid) can be limiting.
Multimodel approaches are needed to address epistemic and aleatory uncertainties.

Purpose of the Study:

To demonstrate the application of the Area Metric for multimodel validity assessment.
To quantify the replicative validity of groundwater flow models.
To rank multiple model representations based on their validity scores.

Main Methods:

Application of the Area Metric developed by Ferson et al. (2008).
Quantification of model-data agreement using empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs).
Ranking of multiple landfill groundwater flow model representations.

Main Results:

The Area Metric effectively quantified the degree of replicative validity.
Multiple model representations were ranked based on their Area Metric scores.
The approach allows for blind assessment, avoiding model overfitting.

Conclusions:

The Area Metric provides a robust framework for multimodel validity assessment.
Explicit incorporation of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties enhances validation.
This approach increases confidence in model representativeness and reduces user risk.