EPA model estimates and waste characterization studies: US paper disposal dynamics.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Waste Management
• Data Analysis

Background:

• Municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is a significant economic byproduct, with paper constituting the largest component in the US (23.1% in 2018).
• Estimating MSW composition nationally involves Material Flow Models and Waste Characterization Studies (WCS).
• Discrepancies in paper waste data can affect environmental planning and climate change modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare paper waste disposal data in the United States using EPA model outputs and WCS data.
• To analyze the differences in disposal estimates for overall paper, old newspaper (ONP), and corrugated cardboard (OCC).

Main Methods:

• Utilized EPA model outputs for paper waste disposal from 1987 to 2022.
• Extracted disposal data for ONP and OCC from 299 US WCS.
• Compared WCS data with EPA data (1973-2018) based on percentages, quantities, and rates (kg/person/year).
• Performed full-period and segmented regressions to analyze data patterns.

Main Results:

• Substantial differences were observed between overall data patterns from EPA models and WCS.
• WCS disposal estimates exceeded 2018 EPA estimates by 25.5 million tonnes for all paper, 0.2 million tonnes for newspaper, and 10.5 million tonnes for corrugated cardboard.
• Regressions indicated significant differences across all data sets and time periods analyzed.

Conclusions:

• Waste Characterization Studies provide significantly higher estimates for paper waste disposal compared to EPA models.
• The disparities highlight the need for accurate data in solid waste management and climate change mitigation strategies.
• Informed policy decisions require the use of the most reliable data sets for environmental impact assessments.