Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 27, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Better public decisions on COVID-19: A thought experiment in metrics
David J Tonjes1, Krista L Thyberg1, Elizabeth Hewitt1
1Waste Data and Analysis Center, Department of Technology and Society, Stony Brook University, New York, USA.
Objectives:
Poor decision-making is a hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better metrics would help improve decision-makers' understanding of the scope of the pandemic and allow for better public understanding/review of these decisions.
Study Design:
Two novel metrics of disease impact were compared with more commonly used standard metrics.
Methods:
A multi-criteria decision analysis technique, used previously to support metric selection in solid waste planning, was adapted to compare number of deaths, hospitalisations, positive test results and positivity rates (standard COVID-19 impact metrics) with a simple model that estimates the total number of potentially infectious people in an area and an associated odds ratio for infectious people.
Results:
The odds ratio and total infectious population estimate metrics scored better in a comparison analysis than number of deaths, hospitalisations, positive test results and positivity rates (in that order).
Conclusions:
The novel metrics provide a more effective means of communication than other more common measures of the outbreak. These superior metrics should support decision-making processes and result in a more informed population.
Related Concept Videos
Pareto Chart
The Pareto chart is named after the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto, who described the Pareto...
Decision Making: P-value Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can have a...
Causality in Epidemiology
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
Coronavirus

