Predictors of Progression in IgA Nephropathy in Childhood

M Mizerska-Wasiak1, J Małdyk2, A Turczyn3

  • 1Department of Pediatrics and Nephrology, Medical University of Warsaw, 63A Zwirki i Wigury St., Warsaw, 02-091, Poland. wasiaczki@wp.pl.

Insights

Predictors of poor prognosis in childhood IgA nephropathy include reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR), nephrotic range proteinuria at onset, and high MEST scores. The IgA/C3 serum ratio is not a reliable predictor of disease progression.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Nephrology
  • Immunology
  • Renal Pathology

Background:

  • IgA nephropathy (IgAN) is a common cause of glomerulonephritis in children.
  • Identifying predictors of poor prognosis is crucial for timely intervention and management.
  • The Oxford classification and MEST score are established tools for assessing IgAN severity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the predictive value of proteinuria, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), and serum IgA/C3 ratio for poor prognosis in pediatric IgAN.
  • To assess the association between MEST score and clinical outcomes in children with IgAN.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study of 55 children with IgAN, diagnosed using Oxford classification and MEST score.
  • Assessment of proteinuria, GFR, and IgA/C3 ratio at disease onset and follow-up.
  • Statistical analysis including ROC AUC curves and logistic regression to identify prognostic factors.

Main Results:

  • Reduced GFR at onset was significantly associated with reduced GFR at follow-up (AUC=0.660, p<0.05).
  • Nephrotic range proteinuria at onset predicted higher likelihood of proteinuria at follow-up (AUC=0.760, p<0.05).
  • High MEST score (≥3) tended to associate with reduced GFR (AUC=0.650, p=0.07) but not proteinuria. The IgA/C3 ratio was higher at follow-up in children with impaired renal function, but not predictive at onset.

Conclusions:

  • GFR reduction, nephrotic range proteinuria at onset, and high MEST scores are significant predictors of poor outcome in childhood IgAN.
  • The serum IgA/C3 ratio at disease onset does not reliably predict long-term GFR reduction or persistent proteinuria.
  • Further research may explore other biomarkers for predicting IgAN progression in children.

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