Assessing the Macro-Level Correlates of Malware Infections Using a Routine Activities Framework

Area of Science:

• Cybersecurity
• Criminology
• Information Systems

Background:

• Unauthorized access to computer systems for espionage and data theft is a significant global threat.
• Malicious software (malware) automates these unauthorized access processes, yet its national-level correlates are understudied.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the macro-correlates of national-level malware infection rates.
• To apply the routine activities framework to understand malware infection patterns.

Main Methods:

• Utilized an open repository of known malware infections for national-level data.
• Employed negative inflated binomial models for count data analysis.

Main Results:

• Nations with greater technological infrastructure were more likely to report malware infections.
• Increased political freedoms correlated positively with higher reported malware infections.
• Less financial impact from organized crime was associated with more reported malware infections.
• The number of national Computer Emergency Response Teams (CERTs) showed no significant relationship with reported malware infections.

Conclusions:

• Technological advancement and political freedom may inadvertently increase a nation's vulnerability to malware.
• Routine activities theory provides a useful framework for understanding malware infection dynamics.
• Findings suggest a need for revised target-hardening strategies beyond traditional CERT structures to mitigate malware threats.