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Potential support ratios: Cohort versus period perspectives
Søren Kjærgaard1, Vladimir Canudas-Romo1
1a University of Southern Denmark.
Population Studies
|May 19, 2017
Summary
The prospective potential support ratio, a measure of population ageing burden, is more accurately calculated using cohort life expectancy than period life expectancy. This method reveals a higher support ratio, indicating more younger individuals per older person.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Gerontology
- Public Health
Background:
- The prospective potential support ratio quantifies the societal burden of ageing.
- Current measures often rely on period life expectancy, which does not account for future mortality improvements.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare the prospective potential support ratio calculated using cohort life expectancy versus period life expectancy.
- To analyze the impact of using actual cohort mortality data on this ratio.
Main Methods:
- Utilized cohort life tables to analyze historical and forecasted mortality data.
- Employed mortality models to compare period and cohort perspectives.
- Calculated the prospective potential support ratio using both approaches.
Main Results:
- Cohort life expectancy, accounting for future mortality improvements, yields a higher prospective potential support ratio.
- The difference indicates approximately 0.5 additional younger individuals per older person in analyzed countries when using cohort data.
Conclusions:
- Cohort-based prospective potential support ratio provides a more accurate reflection of population ageing.
- Findings have significant policy implications for social support and resource allocation.
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