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Assessing food system vulnerabilities: a fault tree modeling approach.

Gwen M Chodur1,2, Xilei Zhao3,4, Erin Biehl1

  • 1Center for a Livable Future, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.

BMC Public Health
|July 5, 2018
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Summary

This study introduces a fault tree analysis (FTA) prototype to assess food system vulnerabilities and enhance community food security. The tool identifies potential failures across accessibility, availability, and acceptability to build resilience against disruptions.

Keywords:
DisastersFood securityFood systemsResilienceVulnerability assessment

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Area of Science:

  • Food systems science
  • Public health
  • Systems engineering

Background:

  • Food systems are vulnerable to disruptions, potentially decreasing community food security.
  • Existing tools for quantitatively analyzing food system vulnerabilities and resilience are limited.
  • A prototype fault tree analysis (FTA) tool is presented to address this gap.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and present a prototype fault tree analysis (FTA) tool for assessing food system vulnerabilities.
  • To conceptually map food system components and potential failure points.
  • To support future quantitative modeling for food system resilience.

Main Methods:

  • Defined food system functioning as community-level food security, encompassing accessibility, availability, and acceptability.
  • Developed 12 subtrees to detail potential failures within the food system.
  • Utilized a top-down approach, incorporating expert knowledge, literature review, and 36 stakeholder interviews to populate subtrees.

Main Results:

  • The fault tree model elaborates on failures within accessibility (physical, economic), availability (supply chain, donation systems), and acceptability (nutritional, medical, cultural).
  • Case studies (Winter Storm Jonas, California drought) demonstrate the model's utility in analyzing real-world disruptions.
  • The model identified numerous vulnerability points across the complex food system.

Conclusions:

  • Fault tree analysis provides a comprehensive framework for evaluating food system failures and recovery potential.
  • The tool can integrate short-term and long-term hazards within a single assessment.
  • Reducing food system vulnerabilities necessitates multi-level actions to protect community food security.