MORBIDITY AND PREVALENCE OF CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES IN UKRAINE: TRENDS AND FORECASTS UNTILL 2025

Cardiovascular diseases rank first by prevalence in Ukraine; it is this pathology that largely causes the unfavourable demographics, affecting the duration and quality of life of the population. Our objective was to study the dynamics of prevalence and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases in Ukraine by regions for the years 1996-2014, and to forecast their change by 2025. Epidemiological, demographic, and statistical methods were used in the research. Data of the Centre for Medical Statistics of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine on the level of primary incidence and prevalence of CVD (ICD-10 code - I00-I99) in the population of Ukraine was used as the material for research. This study was conducted to analyse regional dynamics of morbidity and prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in Ukraine during 1996-2014 and to forecast their change by the year 2025. By means of the method of demographic zoning, we evaluated changes in the prevalence and incidence of CVD in Ukraine and in its separate regions for the years 1996-2014. We predicted the tendency of further growth of CVD both in Ukraine on the whole, and in some of its regions. During the past 20 years, Ukraine saw significant increase in CVD prevalence (2.5 times) and morbidity (1.5 times). These figures changed the most in the South region of Ukraine. Projected figures for CVD prevalence and incidence show the trend of growth, especially in the South and Southeast regions.