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Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber-Physical Attacks on Electricity
Edward J Oughton1,2, Daniel Ralph2, Raghav Pant1
1Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
To prevent widespread power outages from cyber-physical attacks on electricity grids, invest equally in all substations. Prioritize critical infrastructure substations for enhanced cybersecurity to avoid cascading failures.
Area of Science:
- Engineering
- Computer Science
- Economics
Background:
- The 2015 Ukrainian power grid cyber-physical attack highlighted critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.
- Limited data and rapid cyber evolution hinder resilience analytics for cyber-physical threats.
Purpose of the Study:
- Develop a new vulnerability assessment framework for cyber-physical attacks on electricity networks.
- Analyze socioeconomic impacts of such attacks on the London distribution network.
Main Methods:
- Applied stochastic counterfactual risk analysis to overcome data limitations.
- Modeled a Ukrainian-style cyber-physical attack scenario for London's electricity grid.
Main Results:
- Equal resource allocation across substations is key to preventing attack scaling and population disruption.
- Substations supporting Critical National Infrastructure require additional cybersecurity investment to prevent cascading failures.
Conclusions:
- Balancing cybersecurity investments across all substations is crucial for grid resilience.
- Further research needed on inter-institutional tradeoffs in risk mitigation and value metrics for diverse stakeholders.
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