Simple use of BIC to Assess Model Selection Uncertainty: An Illustration using Mediation and Moderation Models

The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) has been used sometimes in SEM, even adopting a frequentist approach. Using simple mediation and moderation models as examples, we form posterior probability distribution via using BIC, which we call the BIC posterior, to assess model selection uncertainty of a finite number of models. This is simple but rarely used. The posterior probability distribution can be used to form a credibility set of models and to incorporate prior probabilities for model comparisons and selections. This was validated by a large scale simulation and results showed that the approximation via the BIC posterior is very good except when both the sample sizes and magnitude of parameters are small. We applied the BIC posterior to a real data set, and it has the advantages of flexibility in incorporating prior, addressing overfitting problems, and giving a full picture of posterior distribution to assess model selection uncertainty.