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Estimating Long-term Tuberculosis Reactivation Rates in Australian Migrants
Katie D Dale1, James M Trauer1,2, Peter J Dodd3
1Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Melbourne Health, Victoria, Australia.
Tuberculosis (TB) reactivation rates in Australian migrants decrease over time but increase in youth and older adults. This study quantifies TB reactivation risks for improved control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
Background:
- Tuberculosis (TB) disease risk is highest early post-infection but can reactivate years later.
- Rates of TB reactivation long after initial infection are poorly understood.
- Australia's low TB incidence means most cases are in migrants, necessitating research into their specific risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify tuberculosis reactivation rates among migrants in Australia.
- To investigate how these rates vary with time since migration, age, and gender.
- To inform tuberculosis control and elimination strategies.
Main Methods:
- Combined TB notification data (2006, 2011, 2016) with latent TB prevalence estimates in migrant cohorts.
- Calculated post-migration reactivation rates based on time from migration and age.
- Analyzed trends in reactivation rates across different demographic groups.
Main Results:
- Identified consistent trends in post-migration TB reactivation rates influenced by time and age.
- Annual reactivation rates were ~400/100,000 within 5 years, decreasing to ~60-70/100,000 up to 60 years post-migration.
- Observed increased reactivation rates in youth (15-24 years) and older adults (70+ years).
Conclusions:
- Post-migration TB reactivation rates are dependent on both time since migration and age.
- Quantifying these risks is crucial for evaluating the effectiveness of TB control programs.
- This approach aids in developing targeted interventions for migrant populations.
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