Dementia in China (2015-2050) estimated using the 1% population sampling survey in 2015

To determine the prevalence of dementia in the past two decades and provide updated estimates about older people (aged ≥60 years) with dementia in China from 2015 to 2050.

The English and Chinese databases were retrieved. Published epidemiology surveys of dementia from 1990-2018 were screened. Meta-analysis was used to calculate their pooled prevalence. The age-moving method was used to estimate the population aged ≥60 years in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on the data of the sampling survey of 1% of the population in 2015 released by the National Bureau of Statistics. The pooled prevalence of three age groups (60-69, 70-79, ≥80 years) from 2015 to 2018 was used as the basis to estimate the number of older people with dementia.

The pooled prevalence rate of dementia in Mainland China from 1985 to 2018 was 4.9% (95% CI 4.3-5.4), and the prevalence rate from 2015 to 2018 among them was 7.4% (95% CI 5.3-9.5). In 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050, the number of people with dementia will be 16.93 million, 24.25 million, 31.98 million and 35.98 million, respectively. Furthermore, people with dementia aged ≥60 years in 2050 will be 2.13-fold than that of 2015.

The number of dementia patients in China will increase dramatically in the next 30 years without preventive measures. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2019; 19: 1096-1100.