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The Impact of a Stochastic Parameterization Scheme on Climate Sensitivity in EC-Earth
K Strommen1, P A G Watson1, T N Palmer1
1Department of Physics University of Oxford Oxford UK.
Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR
|January 31, 2020
Summary
Stochastic physics schemes, like SPPT, can reduce projected global warming by 10% by altering cloud feedbacks. This finding impacts climate modeling and future climate projections.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmospheric Physics
- Computational Modeling
Background:
- Stochastic schemes are vital for representing subgrid-scale variability in weather forecasts.
- Recent studies indicate stochastic physics also benefits long-term climate model performance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of stochastic physics schemes on global warming projections.
- To analyze the effect of the SPPT scheme on historical and future climate simulations.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the fully coupled climate model EC-Earth v3.1.
- Implemented the stochastically perturbed parametrization tendencies (SPPT) scheme.
- Analyzed climate sensitivity and cloud feedback mechanisms under RCP8.5 forcing.
Main Results:
- The SPPT scheme reduced projected global warming by 10% between 1850 and 2100.
- This reduction was linked to altered cloud feedbacks, specifically reduced low cloud cover feedback and increased cloud optical feedback.
- A rapid increase in cloud liquid water was observed, potentially due to nonlinear interactions with condensation.
Conclusions:
- Stochastic physics schemes, such as SPPT, can significantly influence climate model projections of global warming.
- The SPPT scheme's impact on cloud feedbacks is a key factor in modulating climate sensitivity.
- Further research into the nonlinear interactions within stochastic schemes is warranted.
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