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Issues And Trends In Healthcare Delivery System01:29

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National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025-34: Strong Utilization Growth Initially, Legislative Impacts Later.

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National Health Expenditure Projections, 2024-33: Despite Insurance Coverage Declines, Health To Grow As Share Of GDP.

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National Health Expenditure Projections, 2019-28: Expected Rebound In Prices Drives Rising Spending Growth.

Sean P Keehan1, Gigi A Cuckler2, John A Poisal3

  • 1Sean P. Keehan ( sean. keehan@cms. hhs. gov ) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.

Health Affairs (Project Hope)
|March 26, 2020
PubMed
Summary

National health expenditures will rise 5.4% annually through 2028, reaching 19.7% of GDP. Medicare spending will grow fastest, while the insured population share is projected to decline.

Keywords:
Cost growthCosts and spendingHealth policyMedicaidMedicaid servicesMedicareNational health expendituresPrescription drugsPrivate health insuranceWellness

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Area of Science:

  • Health Economics
  • Healthcare Policy
  • Public Health

Background:

  • National health expenditures represent a significant and growing portion of the U.S. economy.
  • Understanding future healthcare spending trends is crucial for policy and financial planning.
  • Projected increases in medical prices and wages impact overall healthcare costs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project national health expenditures (NHE) from 2019 to 2028.
  • To forecast key drivers of NHE growth, including price and enrollment.
  • To analyze spending trends across major payers, such as Medicare.

Main Methods:

  • Econometric modeling of historical data.
  • Projection of healthcare price inflation and wage growth.
  • Analysis of demographic trends influencing enrollment.

Main Results:

  • NHE projected to grow 5.4% annually, reaching 19.7% of GDP by 2028.
  • Medical price growth expected to average 2.4% annually, influenced by wage increases.
  • Medicare spending projected to increase by 7.6% annually due to enrollment growth.
  • Insured population share projected to decrease from 90.6% to 89.4%.

Conclusions:

  • Significant growth in national health expenditures is anticipated.
  • Medicare will be a major driver of future healthcare spending increases.
  • A slight decrease in health insurance coverage is projected over the next decade.