National Health Expenditure Projections, 2025-34: Strong Utilization Growth Initially, Legislative Impacts Later

By 2034, national health spending is projected to total nearly $9.0 trillion and to represent 20.6 percent of the economy, compared with $5.3 trillion and 18.0 percent in 2024. The rate of national health spending growth during this period is influenced by continued elevated use of medical services and goods through 2026; major legislative changes that affect insurance coverage and spending through 2028; and continued demographic shifts toward public programs, mainly Medicare. The insured share of the population is expected to be 90.5 percent in 2034, compared with 91.8 percent in 2024.