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Area of Science:

  • Health economics
  • Healthcare policy
  • Public health spending

Background:

  • National health expenditures have shown robust growth, driven by increased utilization of health care services and goods.
  • Projected growth rates for national health expenditures indicate a continued upward trend in the coming years.
  • Factors such as expiring healthcare subsidies and utilization slowdowns are anticipated to influence future spending patterns.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project national health expenditures and their share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) through 2033.
  • To analyze the key drivers influencing health spending growth, including service utilization and insurance coverage.
  • To forecast the impact of policy changes, such as the expiration of premium tax credits, on health insurance affordability and overall spending.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of historical national health expenditure data.
  • Economic modeling to project future health spending and GDP growth.
  • Assessment of demographic trends and policy impacts on health insurance coverage and utilization.

Main Results:

  • National health expenditures are projected to grow 8.2% in 2024 and 7.1% in 2025.
  • Average annual growth for health spending is projected at 5.8% from 2024-33, outpacing GDP growth (4.3%).
  • The health share of GDP is expected to reach 20.3% by 2033, up from 17.6% in 2023.

Conclusions:

  • National health expenditures are projected to consistently outpace GDP growth over the next decade.
  • Changes in health insurance coverage, influenced by policy expirations, are expected to moderate spending growth in the medium term.
  • The increasing share of GDP dedicated to health care highlights the growing economic significance of the health sector.