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National Health Expenditure Projections, 2021-30: Growth To Moderate As COVID-19 Impacts Wane.
John A Poisal1, Andrea M Sisko2, Gigi A Cuckler3
1John A. Poisal (john.poisal@cms.hhs.gov), Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Baltimore, Maryland.
National health spending growth is projected to slow due to declining COVID-19 funding, with healthcare use and enrollment normalizing. The health sector
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted national health spending and enrollment.
- Federal supplemental funding played a crucial role in mitigating pandemic-related financial effects.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project the near-term and long-term outlook for national health spending and enrollment.
- To analyze the influence of the pandemic and economic factors on the health sector's share of GDP.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical health spending and enrollment data.
- Economic modeling to forecast trends through 2030.
- Consideration of factors like federal funding, healthcare utilization, and demographic shifts.
Main Results:
- National health spending growth decelerated from 9.7% in 2020 to an expected 4.2% in 2021.
- The health share of GDP is projected to decline from 19.7% in 2020 to over 18% by 2022-24, before reaching 19.6% by 2030.
- Healthcare use and enrollment are expected to normalize post-pandemic.
Conclusions:
- The pandemic's influence on health spending is expected to wane, with a return to pre-pandemic drivers.
- Economic, demographic, and health-specific factors will shape future health sector trends.
- Projected stabilization of the health spending share of GDP by 2030.
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