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[Temporal-spatial distribution of tuberculosis in China, 2004-2016]
Summary
Tuberculosis (TB) incidence in China showed a downward trend from 2004 to 2016, with significant spatial clustering observed. While TB control programs progressed, high-risk areas require stricter, targeted prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Spatial Analysis
- Public Health
Background:
- Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant public health challenge globally.
- Understanding the spatial distribution of TB is crucial for effective control strategies.
- China has implemented various TB control programs over the years.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the spatial distribution patterns and identify cluster hotspots of tuberculosis (TB) in China between 2004 and 2016.
- To provide evidence-based insights for targeted TB prevention and control measures.
- To assess temporal trends in TB clustering.
Main Methods:
- Utilized ArcGIS 10.0 for spatial database management and presentation.
- Performed spatial autocorrelation analysis (Global and Local Moran's I, Getis-Ord General G) to identify clustering.
- Employed SaTScan 9.6 software for spatiotemporal scanning analysis to detect significant cluster areas.
Main Results:
- A total of 13,157,794 pulmonary TB cases were registered in China (2004-2016), with a mean annual incidence rate of 75.90/100,000.
- TB incidence exhibited significant spatial clustering, with high-high clusters in Xinjiang, Tibet, Guizhou, Guangxi, and Hainan.
- Fifteen "hot spot" regions were identified, including three "positive hot spots" (Xinjiang, Tibet, Hainan) and twelve "negative hot spots". Twelve statistically significant spatiotemporal cluster areas (P<0.05) were detected.
Conclusions:
- Tuberculosis epidemics in China demonstrated an annual downward trend from 2004 to 2016.
- Provincial TB notification rates were not randomly distributed, indicating significant spatial aggregation.
- Despite overall progress and decreasing cluster areas, high-risk regions necessitate more stringent and targeted prevention and control measures.
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