Predicting neighborhood racial change in large US metropolitan areas, 1990-2010

Neighborhoods in US metropolitan areas experienced dramatic changes in racial composition during the 1990s and again during the 2000s. We ask to what extent does the recent period of neighborhood racial change reflect an extension of the local processes operative in the 1990s, processes characteristic of large metropolitan areas or the nation more generally, or reflect new dynamics. After classifying neighborhoods in US metropolitan areas into different types based on their racial composition and having harmonized a set of tracts to consistent boundaries, we use metropolitan-scale tract transition matrices from the 1990s to predict changes in neighborhood racial mix between 2000 and 2010. To capture scale effects, we repeat this using a set of pooled metropolitan-scale tract transition matrices and again using a national tract transition matrix. We show that the main dynamic at work across the metropolitan system is the underprediction of moderately diverse white majority tracts: i.e., in the 2000s, the rate of increase in the racial diversity of white majority tracts that transitioned from being predominantly white to moderately diverse was much higher than expected based on 1990s trends. In some metropolitan areas, shares of moderately diverse white tracts in 2010 are anticipated by their 1990s neighborhood dynamics, suggesting temporal stability and a locational specificity in these processes. Others experience a temporal rupture in these dynamics, and their moderately diverse white tract share is better anticipated by pooling transition information. The study also invites us to think about the nature of residential change currently taking place that we can capture in 2020 census data.