Risk Analysis, Decision Analysis, Causal Analysis, and Economics: A Personal Perspective from More Than 40 years...

Area of Science:

• Risk analysis and decision analysis
• Integration of physics background into risk assessment methodologies

Background:

• Author's 40-year career in risk analysis, starting with a physics background and doctoral training in decision analysis.
• Involvement in the 1983 National Academies report 'Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process' and subsequent updates.
• The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) as a platform for discourse and development in the field.

Purpose of the Study:

• To revisit and underscore the enduring insights and recommendations from seminal National Academies reports on risk assessment and management.
• To reflect on the evolution and core principles of risk analysis over four decades.
• To share lessons learned regarding the effective practice of risk analysis.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective analysis of personal experience and contributions to the field of risk analysis.
• Review of key reports and their impact on risk assessment and management practices.
• Conceptual exploration of the relationship between risk assessment and risk management.

Main Results:

• Risk analysis encompasses both risk assessment (summarizing science for decisions) and risk management (making choices with stakeholders).
• Effective risk analysis requires addressing complexity, uncertainty, and diverse perspectives.
• Key lessons include the conceptual separation of assessment and management, the value of iterative dialogue, and clear articulation of knowledge, goals, and capabilities.

Conclusions:

• A clear conceptual separation between risk assessment and risk management is crucial.
• An iterative dialogue between risk assessment and risk management enhances decision-making.
• Articulating 'what we know, what we want, and what we can do' is fundamental to understanding and managing risks effectively.