Mortality attributable to heat and cold among the elderly in Sofia, Bulgaria

Area of Science:

• Environmental Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Gerontology

Background:

• Limited epidemiological data exists on temperature-related mortality risks in Bulgaria.
• Non-optimal temperatures pose significant health risks to elderly populations globally.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify mortality risks associated with non-optimal temperatures in adults aged 65 and over in Sofia, Bulgaria.
• To analyze temperature-attributable fractions for various temperature extremes and subgroups.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a distributed lag non-linear model with a 25-day lag.
• Analyzed daily mean temperature and mortality data from Sofia, Bulgaria (2000-2017).
• Examined effects across the total elderly population, by sex, and by age groups (65-84 and 85+).

Main Results:

• Cold temperatures had a greater impact on mortality than hot temperatures.
• Moderate cold accounted for the largest fraction of temperature-attributable mortality, followed by moderate heat, extreme cold, and extreme heat.
• Mortality risks were higher among females and individuals aged 85 and over.

Conclusions:

• Cold exposure is a significant mortality risk factor for the elderly in Sofia.
• Findings support the need for targeted public health strategies and climate adaptation planning for vulnerable populations in Bulgaria.
• Further research and policy development are recommended to mitigate temperature-related health risks.