Related Experiment Video
Updated: Nov 8, 2025

Measuring Engagement of Spectators of Social Digital Games
Published on: July 3, 2021
Not by turnout alone: Measuring the sources of electoral change, 2012 to 2016
Seth J Hill1, Daniel J Hopkins2, Gregory A Huber3
1Department of Political Science, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Dr. #0521, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA. sjhill@ucsd.edu.
Abstract:
Changes in partisan outcomes between consecutive elections must come from changes in the composition of the electorate or changes in the vote choices of consistent voters. How much composition versus conversion drives electoral change has critical implications for the policy mandates of election victories and campaigning and governing strategies. Here, we analyze electoral change between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. presidential elections using administrative data. We merge precinct-level election returns, the smallest geography at which vote counts are available, with individual-level turnout records from 37 million registered voters in six key states. We find that both factors were substantively meaningful drivers of electoral change, but the balance varied by state. We estimate that pro-Republican Party (GOP) conversion among two-election voters was particularly important in states including Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania where the pro-GOP swings were largest. Our results suggest conversion remains a crucial component of electoral change.
More Related Videos
08:24The Joint Effect of Social Comparison and Social Distance on Evaluation of Intertemporal Choice Outcomes in Event-related Potential Studies
Published on: August 25, 2023
09:40Measuring Neural and Behavioral Activity During Ongoing Computerized Social Interactions: An Examination of Event-Related Brain Potentials
Published on: November 15, 2014
Related Concept Videos
Central Tendency: Analysis
The mean is one such measure, calculated by totaling all values in a dataset and dividing by the number of values. For instance, the mean blood pressure reading (120, 130, 140, 150) would be 135. However, the mean can be affected by extreme values or outliers.
The median, another measure,...
Measures of Central Tendency
Sources of Self-Esteem III: Social Comparison
Cross-Sectional Research
Regression Toward the Mean
Stratified Sampling Method
To choose a stratified sample, divide the population into groups called strata and then take a...