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Climate scientists set the bar of proof too high
Elisabeth A Lloyd1, Naomi Oreskes2, Sonia I Seneviratne3
1History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN USA.
Climatic Change
|April 26, 2021
Summary
Climate scientists should lower their proof standards to align with legal requirements for effective communication. Using "more likely than not" can improve public policy and climate evidence dissemination.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Law
- Science Communication
Background:
- Discrepancies exist between scientific evidence standards and legal/policy requirements.
- Effective communication of climate change findings to non-expert audiences is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the mismatch between scientific proof standards and legal/policy contexts.
- To propose recommendations for improving climate science communication.
Main Methods:
- Comparative analysis of scientific and legal standards of proof.
- Review of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reporting practices.
Main Results:
- Climate scientists often demand higher evidence thresholds than required in legal or policy settings.
- The
Conclusions:
- Adopting a
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