Optimal test-kit-based intervention strategy of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous complex networks

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling
• Network Science

Background:

• Infectious disease epidemics pose significant public health challenges.
• Effective mitigation strategies are crucial for controlling disease spread.
• The role of diagnostic tools like test kits in epidemic control requires further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a deterministic compartmental model incorporating test kits for epidemic suppression.
• To investigate the impact of human migration and network structure on disease transmission.
• To identify optimal strategies for test kit deployment in heterogeneous networks.

Main Methods:

• A deterministic compartmental model was developed.
• Simulations were performed to analyze outbreak size and infection peaks.
• Network analysis was used to study migration patterns and connectivity.
• Next-generation matrix methods were employed to determine critical transmission probabilities.

Main Results:

• Test kits demonstrably reduce final outbreak size and peak infection rates.
• Targeted deployment in high-degree or high-betweenness centrality nodes significantly enhances mitigation.
• Analytical methods identified critical transmission probabilities for epidemic onset in networks.

Conclusions:

• Test kits are a vital tool for infectious disease suppression.
• Network structure and targeted interventions are key to effective epidemic control.
• The study provides a framework for optimizing diagnostic tool deployment in real-world scenarios.