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Prolonged Siberian heat of 2020 almost impossible without human influence
Andrew Ciavarella1, Daniel Cotterill1, Peter Stott1
1Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB UK.
Climatic Change
|November 1, 2021
Summary
The 2020 Siberian heatwave was made practically impossible by human-induced climate change. This extreme event, including record temperatures, was significantly amplified by global warming.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Extreme Weather Events
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Siberia recorded its warmest January-June period in 2020.
- Verkhoyansk registered a record 38°C north of the Arctic Circle on June 20, 2020.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the 2020 Siberian heatwave.
- To assess the probability and magnitude of extreme temperatures in Siberia.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a multi-model, multi-method analysis.
- Employed observational datasets and climate models, including CMIP6.
- Focused on regional January-June mean temperatures and Verkhoyansk's daily maximums.
Main Results:
- Human-induced climate change significantly increased the probability and magnitude of Siberian heat extremes.
- Without human influence, the 2020 Siberian temperatures would have been virtually impossible.
- Lower confidence in probability assessment for Verkhoyansk's specific extreme temperature.
Conclusions:
- Anthropogenic climate change is a primary driver of extreme heat events in Siberia.
- Urgent climate action is needed to mitigate future extreme weather.
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