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Examining Insensitivity to Probability in Evidence-Based Communication of Relative Risks: The Role of Affect and
Claire Louise Heard1, Tim Rakow2
1Department of Management, London School of Economics and Political Science, London, UK.
Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 28, 2021
Summary
Emotional content makes people ignore probability in risk communication. Graphical formats can improve understanding of risk information, making communication more effective.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Risk Communication
- Information Design
Background:
- Affective responses significantly influence risk perception and decision-making.
- The insensitivity-to-probability effect describes how emotional scenarios lead individuals to discount statistical probability information.
- Understanding this effect is crucial for effective evidence-informed risk communication.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the insensitivity-to-probability effect in evidence-informed risk communication.
- To examine whether communication format (written, tabular, graphical) moderates this effect.
- To assess the role of prior beliefs in shaping risk perceptions.
Main Methods:
- Two studies (N=85, N=100) presented participants with statistical risk information for affect-rich and affect-poor scenarios.
- Study 1 used a graphical format; Study 2 compared written, tabular, and graphical formats.
- Participants rated their risk perceptions for each scenario.
Main Results:
- The affect-rich scenario was perceived as higher risk, demonstrating reduced sensitivity to probability information compared to the affect-poor scenario.
- This effect was moderated by format, with graphical presentations showing less insensitivity to probability than written formats.
- Prior beliefs about scenario events predicted risk differences in Study 1.
Conclusions:
- Insensitivity to probability is a significant factor in evidence-informed risk communication.
- Communication format plays a critical role in mitigating this effect, with graphical formats being more effective.
- Information designers must consider the interplay of affect and format for optimal risk communication strategies.
Keywords:
Affectinformation formatinsensitivity-to-probability effectrisk communicationrisk perceptionsensitivity to probabilitiesMore Related Videos
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