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Establishing a Competing Risk Regression Nomogram Model for Survival Data
Published on: October 23, 2020
Does Albumin Level Change the Strength of the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center Nomogram Used to Predict 5-year
Mehmet Kubat1, Bahadir Osman Bozkirli2, Mustafa Omer Yazicioglu3
1Department of General Surgery, Alanya Training and Research Hospital, Alanya, Turkey.
Objective:
To test the efficacy of including albumin in the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MKSCC) nomogram (MSKCC+A) on predicting the overall survival.
Study Design:
Descriptive study.
Place And Duration Of Study:
Ankara Training and Research Hospital & Ataturk Training and Research Hospital, Turkey, in 2020, on patients who were operated between 2009 and 2014 to confirm the 5-year survival results.
Methodology:
Patients who underwent R0 resection for colon cancer were evaluated. For each patient in the cohort, the 5-year probability of survival was calculated and compared with actual, using the AJCC (American Joint Committee on Cancer), MSKCC and MSKCC+A estimation systems obtained using logistic regression. The performance of the estimation methods was evaluated by the ROC analysis.
Results:
Two hundred and thirty-nine patients were studied. When the patients with more than 5-year overall survival were compared, the AJCC, MSKCC, and enhanced MSKCC survival scores were significantly higher. AUC = 0.699 for the AJCC staging system, AUC = 0.702 for the MKSCC nomogram, and AUC = 0.777 when the albumin level was added to the MKSCC system.
Conclusions:
The use of the MSKCC overall survival nomogram in patients with colon cancer appears useful for both clinicians and patients. The prognostic power of this calculator was found to be further enhanced by including the preoperative serum albumin level as an extra variable in the nomogram.
Key Words:
Nomograms, Neoplasm grading, Survival, Colon cancer, Serum albumin.
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