Pandemics and Human Capital: Panel Data Evidence From 122 Countries

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Human Capital Development
• Global Health Economics

Background:

• Human capital is a key driver of economic growth.
• Understanding factors influencing human capital is crucial for policy-making.
• The impact of global pandemics on human capital remains under-researched.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the determinants of human capital stocks across 122 countries.
• To analyze the specific role of pandemic uncertainty on human capital.
• To examine these relationships in both high-income and middle/low-income economies.

Main Methods:

• Utilized panel data from 122 countries spanning 1996-2019.
• Employed the Penn World Table for human capital stock measurements.
• Incorporated the World Pandemics Uncertainty index to quantify pandemic-related uncertainty.

Main Results:

• Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth positively correlate with human capital stocks.
• Declining fertility rates are associated with increased human capital.
• Pandemic uncertainty significantly decreases human capital stocks across all income groups.

Conclusions:

• Economic and demographic factors are vital for human capital accumulation.
• Pandemic uncertainty poses a significant threat to human capital development.
• Findings challenge the Becker-Lewis theory, indicating uncertainty negatively impacts human capital.