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Adverse Selection in the Marriage Market: HIV Testing and Marriage in Rural Malawi
Manuela Angelucci1, Daniel Bennett2
1Department of Economics, University of Texas at Austin.
The Review of Economic Studies
|June 6, 2022
Summary
Frequent HIV testing helps people signal sexual safety, accelerating marriage and pregnancy. This intervention increased marriage and pregnancy rates by over 25% for women in 28 months.
Area of Science:
- Behavioral Economics
- Public Health
- Demography
Background:
- Asymmetric information in marriage markets can lead to adverse selection and delayed marriage.
- Sexual safety is a critical, often hidden, partner attribute, particularly in HIV-endemic regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how reducing asymmetric information about sexual safety affects marriage and pregnancy.
- To evaluate the impact of frequent HIV testing interventions on marriage and pregnancy outcomes.
Main Methods:
- Developed a model of positive assortative matching incorporating observable (attractiveness) and hidden (sexual safety) attributes.
- Implemented a high-frequency, opt-out HIV testing intervention and compared it to a single-test intervention.
- Analyzed changes in marriage and pregnancy probabilities over 28 months for baseline-unmarried women.
Main Results:
- Frequent HIV testing accelerated marriage and pregnancy, increasing probabilities by 26% and 27% respectively for women.
- Intervention effects were larger for respondents who were both sexually safe and attractive.
- A single HIV test intervention did not yield significant effects on marriage or pregnancy rates.
Conclusions:
- Reducing asymmetric information about sexual safety through frequent HIV testing can accelerate marriage and pregnancy.
- The findings suggest that endogenous responses to HIV risk may contribute to marriage and pregnancy delays observed during the HIV/AIDS epidemic.
- Frequent HIV testing can serve as a signaling mechanism for sexual safety in the marriage market.
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