A novel approach for accurate quantification of lake residence time - Lake Kinneret as a case study

Water residence time, which is affected by increasing water demands and climate change, plays a crucial role in lakes and reservoirs since it influences many natural physical and ecological processes that eventually impact the water quality of the waterbody. Thus, accurate quantification of the water residence time and its distribution is an important tool in lake management. In this study we present a novel approach for assessing the residence time in lakes and reservoirs. The approach is based on the Leslie matrix model that was originally developed for the analysis of age-structured biological population dynamics. In this approach the water in the lake is divided into different age classes each representing the time since the "parcel" of water entered the lake and provides an overall picture of the water age structure. The traditional approach for calculating residence times, which relies only on the lake volume and annual inflow or outflow volumes thereby disregarding any previous information, is very sensitive to large interannual variation. While the proposed approach produces the fraction and volume distribution curves of all age classes within the lake for each simulated timestep. Thus, in addition to mean residence time, the fraction of young water (FYW), quantifying the "young" fraction of water in the lake can be analyzed. The same is true for any other age class of water. The approach was applied to Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) historical data collected over 32 years (1987-2018) and for prediction of long-term time series based on several future scenarios (inflows and outflows). It offers a more accurate quantification of the mean residence time of water in a lake and can easily be adapted to other waterbodies. Comparison of simulation results may serve as basis for determining the lake's management policy, by controlling the inflows and outflows, that will affect both the mean residence time and the fraction of "young/old" age classes of water.