MRI-Based Radiomic Models Outperform Radiologists in Predicting Pathological Complete Response to Neoadjuvant...

The 15%-27% of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) achieved pathologic complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) and could avoid proctectomy. We aimed to investigate the effectiveness of treatment response prediction using MRI-based pre-, post-, and delta-radiomic features for LARC patients treated with nCRT and to compare these radiomic models with radiologists' visual assessment.

A total of 126 patients with LARC who received nCRT before surgery were included and randomly divided into a training set (n = 84) and a validation set (n = 42). 250 radiomic features were extracted from T2-weighted images from pre- and post-nCRT MRI. Pearson correlation analysis and AONVA or Relief were used to identify radiomic descriptors associated with pCR. Five machine-learning classifiers were compared to construct radiomic models. The radiomic nomogram was built via multivariate logistic regression analysis. Two senior radiologists independently rated tumor regression grades and compared with radiomic models. Area under the curve (AUC) of the models and pooled observers were compared by using the DeLong test.

The optimal pre-, post-, and delta-radiomic models yielded an AUC of 0.717 (95% CI: 0.639-0.795), 0.805 (95%CI: 0.736-0.874), and 0.724 (95%CI: 0.648-0.800), respectively. The radiomic nomogram based on pre-nCRT cN stage, pre-nCRT radscore, and post-nCRT radscore achieved an AUC of 0.852 (95%CI: 0.774-0.930), which was higher than the single radiomic models and pooled readers (all p < 0.05).

The radiomic nomogram is an effective and invasive tool to predict pCR in LARC patients after nCRT, which outperforms radiologists.