The relationship between psychiatric symptoms and affective forecasting bias

Affective forecasting (AF) is the prediction of future emotional states. Negatively biased affective forecasts (i.e., overestimating negative affect) have been associated with trait anxiety, social anxiety, and depression symptoms, but few studies have tested these relationships while covarying commonly co-occurring symptoms.

In this study, participants (N = 114) completed a computer game in dyads. Participants were randomized into one of two conditions: a condition in which they were led to believe they were at-fault for losing their dyad money (n = 24 dyads) or a condition in which they were told no one was at fault (n = 34 dyads). Prior to the computer game, participants forecasted their affect for each potential game outcome.

More severe social anxiety, trait-level anxiety, and depressive symptoms were all associated with more negative AF bias in the at-fault relative to the no-fault condition, and this effect persisted when controlling for other symptoms. Cognitive and social anxiety sensitivity was also associated with more negative AF bias.

The generalizability of our findings is innately limited by our non-clinical, undergraduate sample. Future work should replicate and extend our research in more diverse populations and clinical samples.

Overall, our results support that AF biases are observed across a range of psychopathology symptoms and associated with transdiagnostic cognitive risk factors. Future work should continue investigating the etiological role of AF bias in psychopathology.