Relationships between contract status and player performance in the Australian Football League

This study analysed the extent to which player performance differs within the Australian Football League (AFL) with respect to the status of a player's contract. AFL Player Ratings (AFLPR) and contract data were obtained during the 2013-2020 AFL seasons for all 827 players listed by an AFL club at the beginning of the 2020 season. A model of "expected performance" was created allowing for an exploration into the differential with actual performance as a function of contract status. Paired t-tests indicated that there was a difference in performance pre- and post-signing their contract for players who signed mid-season (mean change and 95% confidence interval of -1.48 ± 0.93 and -0.49 ± 0.48 AFLPR, at ten match intervals for those in- and out-of-contract at the conclusion of that year's season, respectively). Further differences existed between the groups of players who signed mid-season, as compared to those who signed during the off-season. Correlation analyses indicated that more consistent performers are somewhat less likely to see a reduction in performance post signing as compared to less consistent performers. The applications of these findings have the potential to support organisational decisions relating to the timing and nature of player contracting.