Constraining the Capacity of Global Croplands to CO₂ Drawdown via Mineral Weathering

Terrestrial enhanced weathering of alkaline silicate minerals is a promising climate change mitigation strategy with the potential to limit the global temperature rise. The formation and accumulation of pedogenic carbonate and bicarbonate in soils/subsoils and groundwater offers a large sink for C storage; the amount of soil inorganic carbon (SIC) presently held within soils has been estimated to be 720-950 Gt of C. These values can be augmented by the addition of a variety of calcium and magnesium silicates via enhanced weathering. While the concept of the application of finely milled silicate rocks for faster weathering rates is well established, there has been limited discussion on the role of local climate, natural SIC content (i.e., the SIC innately present in the soil), and soil pH (among other important agronomic factors) on silicate weathering when applied to croplands, especially in view that the aim is to establish terrestrial enhanced weathering as a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategy on a global scale. In this work, we emphasized the importance of soil pH and soil temperature on silicate weathering and looked to estimate an upper limit of (i.e., constrain) the global capacity until the year 2100 for enhanced rock weathering (ERW) to draw down CO₂ in the form of accumulated pedogenic carbonate or soluble bicarbonate. We assessed the global spatial distribution of cropland soil pH, which serves as a proxy for local innate SIC; annual rate of pluvial (rainfall) precipitation; and soil temperature, and found that the potential CO₂ drawdown difference between faster and slower weathering silicates is narrower in Asia, Africa, and South America, while the gap is larger for Europe, North America, and Oceania.