[Quantitative evaluation of a SEIR model for forecasting COVID-19 cases]

Gustavo Pereyra Irujo1, Luciano Velázquez2, Andrea Perinetti3

  • 1CONICET. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Balcarce, Argentina.

Medicina
|August 15, 2023
PubMed
Summary

Evaluating a SEIR model for COVID-19 case prediction showed that optimizing parameters and using a moving average filter significantly reduced uncertainty. This highlights the value of simple epidemiological models for resource-limited settings when properly assessed.

Related Concept Videos

Steps in Outbreak Investigation01:18

Steps in Outbreak Investigation

In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
152
Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data01:25

Statistical Methods for Analyzing Epidemiological Data

Epidemiological data primarily involves information on specific populations' occurrence, distribution, and determinants of health and diseases. This data is crucial for understanding disease patterns and impacts, aiding public health decision-making and disease prevention strategies. The analysis of epidemiological data employs various statistical methods to interpret health-related data effectively. Here are some commonly used methods:
411
Residuals and Least-Squares Property01:11

Residuals and Least-Squares Property

The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
If the observed data point lies above the line, the residual is positive, and the line underestimates the actual data value for y. If the observed data point lies below the line, the residual is negative, and the line overestimates the actual data value for y.
The process of fitting the best-fit...
7.4K
Pie Chart01:04

Pie Chart

A pie chart (or a pie graph) is a circular graphical chart or a pictorial representation of categorical data. It is divided into slices of pie each indicating numerical proportions. It is also used to show the relative sizes of data in a single chart.
In a pie chart, the central angle, the arc length of each slice, and the area are directly proportional to the quantity or percentage it represents. Some real-world examples that can be depicted using pie charts include marks obtained by students...
14.2K
Estimating Population Standard Deviation01:26

Estimating Population Standard Deviation

When the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is large, the sample standard deviation s is commonly used as a point estimate of σ. However, it can sometimes under or overestimate the population standard deviation. To overcome this drawback, confidence intervals are determined to estimate population parameters and eliminate any calculation bias accurately. However, this only applies to random samples from normally distributed populations. Knowing the sample mean and...
3.0K
Quantitative Analysis01:12

Quantitative Analysis

Quantitative analysis is a technique for measuring the amount of specific constituents in a sample. When the sample's composition is unknown, qualitative analysis is performed first to identify its components, which ensures that the correct substances are measured during the quantitative phase.
In quantitative analysis, two key measurements are made: the sample quantity and a property proportional to the amount of the analyte (the substance being analyzed). This forms the basis of the...
329