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Spatial Variation in Excess Mortality Across Europe: A Cross-Sectional Study of 561 Regions in 21 Countries
Florian Bonnet1, Pavel Grigoriev2, Markus Sauerberg3
1French Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), 9 cours des Humanités, 93300, Aubervilliers, France. florian.bonnet@ined.fr.
Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health
|February 20, 2024
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant excess mortality and life expectancy losses across 561 European regions in 2020. Regional analysis reveals substantial disparities, with some areas experiencing over 4 years of life expectancy loss.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted global mortality in 2020.
- Subnational variations in pandemic burden were not well-characterized.
- Excess mortality is a key indicator of pandemic impact.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the subnational burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
- To estimate excess mortality and life expectancy changes across European regions.
- To identify geographical disparities in pandemic-related mortality.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of regional all-cause mortality data from 21 European countries (561 regions).
- Calculation of excess mortality relative to expected baseline levels.
- Estimation of life expectancy losses at ages 0 and 60 for males and females.
Main Results:
- 391 out of 561 regions showed a loss in life expectancy in 2020.
- Twelve regions experienced life expectancy losses exceeding 2 years; three exceeded 3 years.
- Geographical clusters of high mortality were identified in Northern Italy, Spain, and Poland.
Conclusions:
- Significant regional differences in life expectancy loss were observed, ranging up to over 4 years.
- National estimates mask considerable regional disparities in pandemic impact.
- Subnational analysis is crucial for understanding and addressing the pandemic's burden.
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