Participatory Causal Loop Diagrams Building for Supporting Decision-Makers Integrating Flood Risk Management in an...

Area of Science:

• Urban planning and environmental management
• System dynamics and risk assessment
• Socio-technical systems analysis

Background:

• Current flood risk models inadequately capture urban complexity and uncertainty.
• This limitation hinders effective flood risk management and urban regeneration planning.
• Existing tools often fail to account for the interplay between urban evolution and flood risk.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose an innovative methodological framework for urban regeneration planning.
• To support decision-makers in assessing multi-dimensional implications of flood risk and management strategies.
• To integrate urban development dynamics with flood risk assessment in complex urban systems.

Main Methods:

• Utilized System Thinking principles and participatory System Dynamics modeling.
• Integrated scientific knowledge with stakeholder expertise.
• Applied the framework to a case study in Thamesmead, London, focusing on urban regeneration and flood vulnerability.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated a replicable modeling approach for integrating urban development and flood risk.
• Highlighted the potential for achieving multi-dimensional benefits (environmental, social, economic) through integrated strategies.
• Provided insights into the complex interconnections within urban systems and flood risk.

Conclusions:

• The proposed framework enhances flood risk management in urban regeneration by accounting for system complexity.
• It supports evidence-based decision-making for effective mitigation and prevention measures.
• The approach offers a pathway to achieve sustainable urban development resilient to flood risks.