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District-Level Forecast of Achieving Trachoma Elimination as a Public Health Problem By 2030: An Ensemble Modelling
Ariktha Srivathsan1, Amza Abdou2, Tawfik Al-Khatib3
1Francis I. Proctor Foundation, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.
Summary
Forecasting models predict that 172 districts may exceed the trachoma control threshold by 2030. Enhanced interventions are crucial for global trachoma elimination efforts.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Modeling
Background:
- Global trachoma elimination is targeted for 2030.
- Identifying districts needing enhanced treatment is critical for operational planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the feasibility of the 2030 global trachoma elimination target.
- To identify districts requiring intensified interventions using forecasting models.
Main Methods:
- Developed seven probabilistic models to forecast trachomatous inflammation-follicular (TF) prevalence.
- Utilized ensemble-based approaches with district-level TF data (2004-2022).
- Incorporated geographical location, mass drug administration history, and prior prevalence data as predictors.
Main Results:
- Forecasted probability distributions for TF prevalence in 11,760 districts.
- Predicted that 172 districts (1.46%) may exceed the 5% TF control threshold by 2030 under current interventions.
Conclusions:
- Achieving global trachoma elimination by 2030 may necessitate intensified interventions or enhanced surveillance in high-risk districts.
- Probabilistic forecasting aids in operational planning for trachoma control programs.
