Global population: from Super-Malthus behavior to Doomsday criticality

Area of Science:

• Complex Systems Physics
• Demography
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Understanding long-term global population trends is crucial for societal planning.
• Previous models often simplified population dynamics, failing to capture critical transitions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model global population changes from the Holocene to 2023 using novel Super Malthus (SM) scaling equations.
• To identify key transition points and behaviors in population growth patterns.

Main Methods:

• Numerical filtering of population data to create a smooth dataset for analysis.
• Application of two Super Malthus (SM) scaling equations (SM-1 and SM-2) to model population dynamics.
• Distortions-sensitive, derivative-based analysis to identify behavioral shifts.

Main Results:

• A transition from compressed to stretched exponential growth was identified around 1970 (3 billion population) using the SM-1 equation.
• The SM-2 equation revealed constrained critical behavior linked to the Industrial Revolution, with an extrapolated infinite population year.
• Connections to the hyperbolic von Foerster Doomsday equation and Weibull distribution were established.

Conclusions:

• Global population growth exhibits complex, non-linear dynamics with identifiable transition periods.
• The Super Malthus (SM) framework provides a robust tool for analyzing historical and projecting future population trends.
• The findings have implications for complex systems physics, extreme value theory, and understanding historical demographic shifts.