Low-carbon pilot policy and development path in urban agglomerations of China: Mechanism analysis and stage...

Urban agglomeration (UA) plays as the main carrier of economy and society in China, concentrating the human activities, energy consumptions, and subsequent carbon emissions in space. The policy-induced mechanism of carbon emissions in the units of UA is currently less explored, and diversities of low-carbon development path of UAs remain unknown. Thus, this study analyzes the carbon emissions of 19 UAs in China from 2006 to 2019, focuses on the low-carbon city pilot policy (LCPP), constructs an SDM-DID model to investigate the impacts of LCPP on carbon emissions regionally, and delineates the stages of low-carbon development in UAs based on the theory of Environmental Kuznets Curve. The results show that carbon emissions of China's UAs are spatially distributed as higher in the east but lower in the west, and increase faster in the central. The effect of LCPP on carbon emissions is significant but inhibitory in the central and northeastern UAs, while it becomes insignificant in the eastern ones. Finally, the low-carbon development paths of all UAs are divided into Type I, strong Type I, Type II, Type III, and Type IV stage. The eastern UAs are all at Type I stage because they are more sensitive and ahead in terms of low-carbon development strategies. The findings of this study can provide references for city groups to formulate carbon reduction policies and decouple the relations between economic development and carbon emissions.