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Differential Privacy and the Accuracy of County-Level Net Migration Estimates.

Richelle L Winkler1, Jaclyn L Butler2, Katherine J Curtis3

  • 1Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI USA.

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|October 18, 2024
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Summary

Differential privacy in Census 2020 data may reduce the accuracy of net migration estimates for US counties. This impacts smaller counties, older age groups, and Hispanic populations, potentially limiting detailed demographic analysis.

Keywords:
agedifferential privacyerror metricsnet migrationplanningspatial analysis

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Data Privacy
  • Geospatial Analysis

Background:

  • Decennial census data has historically enabled high-quality net migration estimates for US counties.
  • These estimates are crucial for planning, diverse applications, and research.
  • Census 2020 data is expected to continue this series, but may be affected by new disclosure avoidance techniques.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the impact of differentially private (DP) disclosure avoidance techniques on the accuracy of county-level net migration estimates.
  • To assess the usability of hypothetical DP net migration estimates for the 2000-2010 decade.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized differentially private Census 2010 demonstration data.
  • Constructed hypothetical DP net migration estimates for 2000-2010.
  • Compared hypothetical DP estimates with published estimates using accuracy metrics and spatial analysis.

Main Results:

  • DP implementation could limit accurate net migration estimates to about half of US counties.
  • Inaccuracies are more pronounced in counties with populations under 50,000, for individuals aged 65 and over, and for the Hispanic population.
  • Error clustering was observed in specific geographic regions.
  • Broader age group aggregation did not fully resolve accuracy issues.

Conclusions:

  • Differential privacy techniques in Census 2020 data may significantly compromise the accuracy of county-level net migration estimates.
  • The utility of these estimates for detailed demographic analysis, especially in vulnerable populations and smaller counties, is at risk.
  • Future accuracy depends on the Census Bureau's management of the privacy loss budget.