A performance degradation assessment method for complex electromechanical systems based on adaptive evidential reasoning rule

The evidence reasoning (ER) rule has been widely used in various fields to deal with both quantitative and qualitative information with uncertainty. However, when analyzing dynamic systems, the importance of various indicators frequently changes with time and working conditions, such as performance degradation assessment of complex electromechanical systems, and the weights of the traditional evidence reasoning rules cannot be appropriately adjusted. To solve this problem, this paper proposes an adaptive evidence reasoning (AER) rule that can adjust weights according to different times and working conditions. The AER rule has two unique features: adaptive weight operation under time division and adaptive weight operation under working-condition division, which are used to solve the problem of dynamic weight adjustment under different times and working conditions. The CMA-ES algorithm is used to optimize the model parameters. Two case studies of performance degradation assessment are established to prove the advantage of the AER rule: a computer numerical control experiment and a simulation experiment of turbofan aeroengine. The results verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.