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Reassessing the winner-loser gap in satisfaction with democracy
Jean-François Daoust1,2, Miroslav Nemčok3, Philipp Broniecki3
1School of Applied Politics, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada.
Plos One
|December 17, 2024
Summary
Citizens who vote for winning parties are not more satisfied with democracy than those who vote for losing parties. Causal analysis reveals no "winner-loser gap" in democratic satisfaction, challenging existing political science theories.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Comparative Politics
- Democratic Theory
Background:
- Existing research suggests voters of governing parties report higher democratic satisfaction than opposition voters, termed the "winner-loser gap."
- This phenomenon lacks robust causal evidence, relying primarily on correlational studies.
- High uncertainty surrounding government formation presents a unique context to study this effect.
Purpose of the Study:
- To provide a causal estimate of the effect of voting for a winning versus a losing party on citizens' satisfaction with democracy.
- To test the validity of the widely cited "winner-loser gap" in democratic satisfaction.
- To examine this effect in established democracies during periods of high political uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Utilized survey data collected before and after government formation announcements in the Netherlands, Norway, and Iceland.
- Employed a regression discontinuity design to compare democratic satisfaction levels of citizens just before and after their electoral outcome (winner or loser) was determined.
- Focused on contexts with very high uncertainty regarding new government formations.
Main Results:
- The causal impact of being a "winner" or "loser" on citizens' satisfaction with democracy was found to be statistically indistinguishable from zero.
- The study found no significant evidence supporting the existence of a causal "winner-loser gap."
- Electoral outcomes, in terms of government participation versus opposition, did not causally affect democratic satisfaction in the studied contexts.
Conclusions:
- The widely assumed "winner-loser gap" in democratic satisfaction lacks empirical support when causally estimated.
- Citizens' satisfaction with democracy is not significantly influenced by whether their supported party enters government or remains in opposition.
- Findings necessitate a re-evaluation of theories explaining the relationship between electoral success and citizen evaluations of democracy.
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