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Global mean sea level likely higher than present during the holocene
Roger C Creel1,2, Jacqueline Austermann3, Robert E Kopp4
1Department of Physical Oceanography, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA. roger.creel@whoi.edu.
Nature Communications
|December 31, 2024
Summary
Global mean sea-level (GMSL) likely surpassed early industrial levels after 7.5 ka, with future rise projected to be the fastest in 5,000 years. Antarctica was likely smaller than present after 7 ka.
Area of Science:
- Paleoclimatology
- Glaciology
- Sea-level research
Background:
- Global mean sea-level (GMSL) change is a key indicator of Earth system response to warming.
- Holocene ice sheet extents suggest GMSL may have been lower than early industrial levels, contrary to some interpretations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reconstruct Holocene GMSL and ice volume using integrated data and models.
- To assess past GMSL changes and project future sea-level rise rates.
Main Methods:
- Integration of sea-level data with a glacial isostatic adjustment model ensemble.
- Reconstruction of postglacial thermosteric sea-level and mountain glacier evolution.
Main Results:
- GMSL likely exceeded early industrial levels after 7.5 ka, peaking 0.24 m above present by 3.2 ka.
- Antarctic ice volume was likely smaller than present after 7 ka.
- GMSL rise by 2150 is very likely to be the fastest in 5,000 years; by 2060, it may be the highest in 115,000 years.
Conclusions:
- Holocene GMSL likely surpassed early industrial levels, challenging previous assumptions.
- Future sea-level rise is projected to be unprecedented in millennia, highlighting the impact of anthropogenic warming.
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