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A framework for evolving assumptions in risk analysis.

Kendrick Hardaway1,2, Roger Flage3

  • 1Environmental and Ecological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, USA.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|March 8, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Risk assessment must account for changing dynamics in complex systems. This study proposes a framework for incorporating evolutionary probabilities and feedback loops into risk analysis for emerging technologies.

Keywords:
assumptionscomplex systemsfeedback loopsinterventionsrisk assessmentrisk science

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Area of Science:

  • Risk analysis
  • Complex adaptive systems
  • Emerging technologies

Background:

  • Current risk assessment often oversimplifies complex systems or ignores human responses.
  • Interconnected and evolving features of topics like climate change and automation pose challenges.
  • Risk analysts must manage shifting assumptions and probabilities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the necessity of addressing evolutionary dynamics in risk assessment.
  • To present a framework for considering these dynamics.
  • To propose a formal approach for risk description in complex adaptive systems.

Main Methods:

  • Review of current risk analysis limitations.
  • Development of a conceptual framework for dynamic risk assessment.
  • Proposal of a formal approach integrating feedback loops.

Main Results:

  • Identified limitations in traditional risk assessment for dynamic systems.
  • Outlined a framework to incorporate evolving assumptions and probabilities.
  • Proposed a formal method for risk description considering complex adaptive systems.

Conclusions:

  • Explicit consideration of evolutionary dynamics is crucial for accurate risk assessment.
  • The proposed framework offers a method to address feedback loops and system dynamics.
  • This approach enhances risk analysis for complex and emerging technologies.