Temporal trends in the association between temperature and firearm mortality

Area of Science:

• Environmental Health
• Public Health
• Epidemiology

Background:

• Firearm violence is a significant cause of mortality in the U.S.
• Elevated temperatures are increasingly linked to firearm incidents.
• These incidents disproportionately affect lower socioeconomic status populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• Analyze firearm mortality trends attributed to high temperatures in Alabama and Georgia (2000-2020).
• Examine differences in these trends by race/ethnicity and sex.
• Inform targeted public health interventions and address health inequities.

Main Methods:

• Utilized individual-level firearm mortality data (n=44,957) from Alabama and Georgia (2000-2020).
• Employed time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM).
• Estimated annual attributable fractions (AFs) of firearm deaths linked to temperatures above the 90th percentile, with stratified analyses.

Main Results:

• Heat attributable fractions (AFs) for firearm mortality increased by 0.05% annually from 2000-2020.
• Females exhibited a higher annual percent increase (APC) in heat-related AF (0.12%) compared to males (0.02%).
• Black/African Americans showed a higher APC (0.10%) than the White population (0.02%).

Conclusions:

• Extreme heat significantly contributes to increased firearm mortality in Alabama and Georgia.
• Health impacts vary across sex and racial/ethnic groups, indicating disparities.
• Public health initiatives must raise awareness of heat's impact on firearm mortality for climate change adaptation.