Maintaining capital discipline in the rush to net-zero energy systems

Achieving ambitious net-zero targets will involve executing large, often interdependent, capital projects across multiple value chains at unprecedented speed. We use a mixed methods approach to explore potential risks associated with speeding up deployment. Like in other sectors, we find that energy transition projects have a history of underperformance in terms of cost and time. Such underperformance can arise due to a variety of unforeseen challenges affecting supply chains, community opposition, regulations, and scope changes, among others. Engaging with experienced clean energy practitioners suggests that recent efforts to accelerate the transition and aggressive time-limited incentives may result in less accurate estimates of expected performance and lead to more frequent delays, cost overruns, and even project failures for clean energy infrastructure. To limit underperformance, there is a need to strengthen capabilities within public institutions to assure value through robust selection and oversight of projects, manage expectations so specific successes do not create unrealistic expectations and specific failures do not erode public support, and capture and disseminate lessons learned and adapt plans in response to learnings.