Supply, Distribution, and Aging of the General Surgeon Workforce by Rurality and Over Time: A National Observational...

Area of Science:

• Healthcare Workforce Analysis
• Surgical Supply Chain Dynamics
• Rural Health Disparities

Background:

• Healthcare systems grapple with workforce shortages and an aging physician population, particularly impacting rural areas and access to care.
• General surgeons are essential for healthcare infrastructure, yet data on their supply, distribution, and age demographics in the U.S. is limited.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the age distribution of general surgeons across different rurality levels.
• To identify potential future shortages of general surgeons, focusing on those approaching retirement age.

Main Methods:

• A repeated, cross-sectional study design utilizing county-level data from 2010 to 2020.
• Descriptive and bivariate analyses comparing general surgeon staffing by metropolitan and nonmetropolitan county status.

Main Results:

• Nationally, 16.5% of general surgeons are aged 65 or older.
• Nonmetropolitan counties have a higher proportion of older surgeons (28.1% aged 65+) compared to metropolitan counties (20.2%).
• Metropolitan areas exhibit a greater concentration of younger general surgeons relative to nonmetropolitan areas.

Conclusions:

• A disproportionately high percentage of rural general surgeons are nearing retirement age, with a critical lack of younger replacements.
• Approximately 60% of general surgeons in nonmetropolitan areas are projected to reach retirement age within the next decade, signaling impending shortages.
• These findings underscore the need for targeted strategies to train, recruit, and retain general surgeons in rural regions to ensure continued patient access to surgical care.