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Tropical forest carbon offsets deliver partial gains amid persistent over-crediting
Yuzhi Tang1,2, Chao Yang2,3, Haishan Wu4,5
1Guangdong Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy (SZ), Shenzhen, China.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|October 9, 2025
Summary
Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation Plus (REDD+) projects show mixed effectiveness in reducing deforestation and meeting emissions targets. While many offer partial climate benefits, improving methodologies is key for credible forest carbon offsets.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Mitigation
- Forestry
Background:
- Voluntary REDD+ projects generate carbon credits, but their effectiveness is debated.
- Concerns exist regarding the accuracy of emissions reductions and credit validity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of 52 voluntary REDD+ projects in reducing deforestation.
- To assess the extent to which REDD+ projects meet their reported emissions targets.
Main Methods:
- Utilized synthetic control methods to analyze data from 52 REDD+ projects across 12 tropical countries.
- Compared project performance against counterfactual scenarios to estimate climate benefits.
Main Results:
- A minority of REDD+ project units demonstrated statistically significant deforestation reductions.
- Only 19% of projects met their reported emissions targets.
- An estimated 13.2% of tradable credits were supported by counterfactual analysis, indicating partial climate benefits.
Conclusions:
- REDD+ project effectiveness varies significantly by region, with stronger performance noted in Brazil and Africa.
- While over-crediting is a concern, REDD+ projects may offer greater climate benefits than previously estimated.
- Enhancing baseline methodologies and verification frameworks is crucial for improving the credibility and impact of forest carbon offsets.
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