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Research on network security vulnerability risk contagion in software supply chain based on system dynamics
Hui Cai1, Qiang Xiong2, Shuai Lian2
1Sino-British College, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, China.
Plos One
|November 21, 2025
Summary
Software supply chain security risks spread faster with selective attacks. Increasing security investment and software quality are key defenses, while technological progress offers diminishing returns for governance.
Area of Science:
- Cybersecurity
- Network Science
- Systems Engineering
Background:
- Software supply chains are critical infrastructure vulnerable to cyber threats.
- Complex interdependencies create novel network and information security challenges.
- Understanding risk contagion is vital for protecting systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate information security risk contagion in software supply chains.
- Identify factors influencing risk propagation.
- Evaluate defense strategies in multi-layer networks.
Main Methods:
- System dynamics (SD) modeling to create a risk contagion framework.
- Incorporation of multi-layer network structures.
- Dynamic simulations under various attack and defense scenarios.
Main Results:
- Selective attacks accelerate risk transmission compared to random attacks.
- Enhanced security investment and software quality are effective against random attacks.
- Technological progress is more beneficial than reducing vulnerability rates, with decreasing marginal returns.
Conclusions:
- Quantitatively validated cascading security risks in multi-layer supply chain networks.
- Provided actionable insights for risk management.
- Established a system dynamics foundation for predictive risk assessment in software supply chains.
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